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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.